නිදහස් හා විවෘත ප්රවේශය
රාජ්ය මූල්ය දත්ත හා විශ්ලේෂණයන් සඳහා
Dollar-denominated bonds held by debt-defaulted nations like Sri Lanka and Zambia have been surprisingly lucrative in 2024, boasting double-digit returns. This trend is primarily attributed to domestic policy reforms and shifts that have rendered these bonds more appealing than those from wealthier nations. According to The Financial Times, emerging market sovereign bonds, particularly those with a triple B 'junk' rating or lower, have yielded a total return of 4.9% for investors this year, in stark contrast to the 3.3% loss experienced by a US Treasury bond index. The unexpected resilience of the global economy, coupled with soaring commodity prices benefiting countries like oil-rich Nigeria, Angola, and copper producer Zambia, has buoyed these gains. Moreover, the assistance extended by entities such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a pivotal role in aiding nations grappling with debt distress or default, such as Sri Lanka and Zambia. Dollar bonds in Sri Lanka, Ghana, and Zambia have all delivered impressive double-digit returns, marking the final stages of their restructuring processes. Paul Greer, an emerging markets debt portfolio manager at Fidelity International, noted that "The most fragile countries in EM are becoming less fragile," attributing much of this progress to domestic policy reforms and changes. Furthermore, the substantial backing from the IMF and other official creditors in recent months has helped mitigate the likelihood of further sovereign debt defaults this year, according to investors. The commendable performance of high-yield emerging market nations has contributed to a 1.4% increase in JPMorgan's broader foreign currency EM sovereign bond index, standing in stark contrast to a 3% decline in an index of high-grade global bonds.
