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According to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), Sri Lanka's paddy rice harvest output is poised to surpass five million metric tons (MMT) in the next year, marking a significant recovery from previous years. The USDA projects a marginal 2% year-on-year increase, reaching 5.02 MMT in the 2024/2025 market year (October-September), compared to an estimated 4.96 MMT in the 2023/2024 period. This recovery follows a downturn in production, with paddy rice dropping to 2.57 MMT in the 2021/2022 market year due to factors such as a temporary ban on chemical fertilizers and agrochemicals. The forecasted increase in production is supported by expectations of favorable weather conditions and a marginal decrease in production costs, attributed to declines in global fertilizer prices and an appreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the USDA anticipates an increase in milled rice output to 3.42 MMT, stemming from a planted area of 1.1 million hectares and improved yields of 4.57 metric tons (MT) per hectare of rough rice. This reflects an 850,000 MT or 21% year-on-year increase in rice production for the 2023/2024 market year, with yields reaching 4.35 MT/hectare. Additionally, Sri Lankan government institutions and international donor agencies are transitioning from emergency humanitarian aid towards more sustainable long-term solutions to bolster paddy rice production.
