Topics
Explore
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Data
Reports
Acts and Gazettes
Insights
Dashboards
Annual Budget Dashboard
Budget Promises
Fiscal Indicators
Fuel Price Tracker
IMF Tracker
Infrastructure Watch
PF Wire
About Us
EN
English
සිංහල
தமிழ்
;
Thank You
Free and Open Access to
Public Finance Data and Analysis
Home
Search Result
Tags
All
Action Plan
Actual
Annual Report
Appropriation Bill
Asset Management
Audit
Bank
Bonds
Budget
Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Compensation
COPF
Corporate
Covid
Customs Duty
Customs
Debt Management
Debt
Deficit Financing
Development
Disaster
Elections
Employee Provident Fund
Employment
EPF
ESC
Estimate
Excise
Expenditure
External Debt
Finance Act
Financing
Fiscal Policy
Gaming Tax
Gazette
Grant
Health
IMF
Income Tax
Loans
Macroeconomics
Ministry of Finance
Motor Vehicles
National Evaluation Policy
NBT
PAL
Parliament
Performance Report
Procurement
Progress Report
Project Progress
Provincial Council Budget
Public Finance
Remuneration
Reserves
Revenue
Scams
SCL
SOEs
Stamp Duty
State-Owned Enterprises
Tax Exemptions
Tax Incentives
Tax Reforms
Tax Revenue
Tax
Telecommunication Levy
Tobacco
VAT
Filter by year
From
2018
2019
2020
2021
>
To
2018
2019
2020
2021
Free and Open Access to
"debt restructuring"
Reports
Verité Research Debt Update Issue 4
View More
The Desirability of Domestic Debt Restructuring
View More